Is Muscat Building More Homes Than It Needs?
Published October 22, 2026 · By Waleed Al Abri
Short answer
The big projects come slowly. The risk is in ordinary flats, mostly old ones.
Muscat adds about 5,000 to 10,000 new households a year. The big planned communities can deliver about 1,600 to 4,300 homes a year to 2030. (Both are my estimates from public data.)
"Oversupplied" is a question to watch, not a finding. Muscat is not one market. The question is which unit.
The question I get most from buyers in Muscat is simple.
"So many new projects. Who will live in all of them?"
So I went through the public numbers. Population, households, the big projects, and three other Gulf markets. This is what I found.
Is Muscat's population still growing?
Yes, but slower now.
| Date | Muscat population | Change |
|---|---|---|
| End of 2023 | 1,455,680 | — |
| End of 2024 | 1,498,521 | +42,841 (+2.9%) |
| End of 2025 | 1,532,486 | +33,965 (+2.3%) |
| July 2026 | 1,546,325 | +24,975 (+1.6%) in 12 months |
Sources: NCSI Statistical Year Book 2025 (2023, 2024); NCSI Monthly Statistical Bulletin, August 2026 (2025, July 2026).
Most of the growth is expats. In 2024 they were +34,170 of the +42,841. Omanis were +8,671.
People rent and buy as households, not one by one. An expat household in Muscat is about 4 people. An Omani household is about 7. So Muscat adds roughly 5,000 to 10,000 new households a year.
| Year | New people | New households (my calculation) |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | +42,841 | about 9,600 |
| 2025 | +33,965 | about 7,600 |
| 12 months to July 2026 | +24,975 | about 5,600 |
How I calculated it: new expats ÷ 4.1, plus new Omanis ÷ 6.9 (NCSI household sizes for Muscat, end of 2022, from NCSI, Population, Housing and Household Statistics 2023 (archived copy, Arabic)). Newer sizes for Muscat are not published, so this is an estimate.
How many homes will the mega projects deliver?
The headlines are big. Sultan Haitham City: 20,000 homes. Jood and Yamal: about 15,600 together. Madinat Al Irfan: 10,000. Al Khuwair Downtown: 7,500+.
But they are built in phases. A developer starts the next phase only after the last one sells. Sultan Haitham City's full plan runs to 2045.
Sultan Haitham City
- Planned units:
- about 20,000 (Phase 1: 6,743)
- Delivery:
- Phase 1 2024–2030 (2023 plan); full plan to 2045
- Status:
- About 2,100 sold by October 2026 (Ministry of Housing and Urban Planning)
Source: Oman Observer, Sultan Haitham City plan (20 Jun 2023) · Oman Observer, Housing Minister on Sultan Haitham City (24 Feb 2026) · Muscat Daily, Sultan Haitham City 1,700 units sold (13 Apr 2026)
Jood and Yamal (Talaat Moustafa)
- Planned units:
- about 15,600 together; Jood alone 7,746
- Delivery:
- First phase 2030 (developer)
- Status:
- 380+ sold in the first half of 2026
Source: Ministry of Housing and Urban Planning, Jood · Talaat Moustafa Group, investor presentation (Sep 2026)
Wadi Zaha (inside Sultan Haitham City)
- Planned units:
- 950
- Delivery:
- Not on the source page
- Status:
- On sale
A'Thuraya City
- Planned units:
- Phase 1: 2,600+ · Phase 2: 3,600
- Delivery:
- No date published
- Status:
- Construction started (Sep 2025)
Al Khuwair Downtown
- Planned units:
- 7,500+
- Delivery:
- No date published
- Status:
- Only early agreements (MoUs) signed. No developer contract yet (Sep 2026)
Madinat Al Irfan
- Planned units:
- 10,000 planned
- Delivery:
- No date published
- Status:
- First residential phase signed 13 Oct 2026
Al Mouj, last two phases
- Planned units:
- 611
- Delivery:
- Not on the source page
- Status:
- Launched Feb 2026
Sorouh (subsidised): Al Ahd and Amerat
- Planned units:
- 965 and 1,006
- Delivery:
- Not on the source pages
- Status:
- Announced 2025 and 2026
Source: Oman Observer, Sorouh Al Ahd (7 May 2025) · Muscat Daily, Ministry projects incl. Amerat (10 May 2026)
I added up what the big planned communities can deliver by 2030. I got about 1,600 to 4,300 homes a year.
| Planned communities, Muscat | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Subsidised housing (e.g. Sorouh) | 1,000 | 2,000 |
| Future cities (e.g. Sultan Haitham City) | 4,000 | 10,600 |
| Tourism complexes (ITCs) | 3,000 | 9,000 |
| Total, 2026 to 2030 | 8,000 | 21,600 |
| Per year | 1,600 | 4,300 |
My estimate from the project pages and developer reports above. Self-built villas on government plots are not in it.
That is LESS than the new households each year. The big projects are not the main supply.
Is Muscat oversupplied?
Ordinary apartment buildings are the bigger number.
One consultancy, Cavendish Maxwell, estimated that Muscat added about 15,500 apartments in 2024 (Oman Observer, Cavendish Maxwell interview (24 Jun 2025)). Muscat added about 9,600 new households that year.
Be careful with this number. It is one estimate. I could not confirm it with official data. For comparison, Muscat added 13,100 new electricity connections in 2024 (NCSI Statistical Year Book 2025, provisional). That count is for all connections, not only homes.
Cavendish Maxwell also says many tenants move from old flats to new ones. So OLDER buildings may have more empty units.
How does Muscat compare with Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Bahrain?
New homes for every new resident. This is rough, and it is my calculation.
Muscat (flats only, 2024)
- New homes per new resident:
- 0.36 (15,500 flats ÷ 42,841 people)
- Market now:
- Rents flat: housing costs in Oman's price index are almost the same as in 2018 (100.9 in July 2026; 2018 = 100)
Source: Oman Observer, Cavendish Maxwell interview (24 Jun 2025) · NCSI Statistical Year Book 2025 · NCSI Monthly Statistical Bulletin, August 2026
Dubai (all homes, 2025)
- New homes per new resident:
- 0.14 (46,700 homes ÷ 332,000 people)
- Market now:
- April to June 2026: prices −4% and rents −6% from the quarter before
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, Dubai Q4 2025 · Gulf News, Dubai population (29 Sep 2026) · Cushman & Wakefield, Dubai Q2 2026
Abu Dhabi
- New homes per new resident:
- Not calculated: no 2025 population published yet
- Market now:
- Flat prices +16.4% in the first half of 2026, vs a year before. But prices fell 1% from April to June, the first fall since late 2021
Source: Khaleej Times, Abu Dhabi supply (Cavendish Maxwell, 26 Aug 2026) · Cushman & Wakefield, Abu Dhabi H1 2026
Bahrain
- New homes per new resident:
- Not calculated: I found no public number for new homes a year
- Market now:
- Flat values −1.82% in the first half of 2026. Rents −1.2%
Source: CBRE, Bahrain H1 2026
Muscat builds more than twice Dubai's rate per new person. But the Muscat number counts flats only, and it is one estimate. Dubai counts all homes.
And Muscat rents are flat, not falling like Dubai's. Why? I am not sure. One reason may be where the empty units are: in old buildings.
Are buyers still active?
Yes. These numbers from 2026 point the other way.
Sales contracts, all of Oman
- Number:
- OMR 954.1 million in Jan–Aug 2026, +14.5%
Mortgage contracts, all of Oman
- Number:
- 15,441 in Jan–Jul 2026, +22.3%. Total value +0.7% only (OMR 864.4 million). So loans got smaller. That fits first-time buyers.
Sultan Haitham City
- Number:
- About 2,100 units sold by October 2026 (Ministry of Housing and Urban Planning)
Jood and Yamal (Talaat Moustafa)
- Number:
- 380+ units sold in the first half of 2026
Source: Talaat Moustafa Group, investor presentation (Sep 2026)
Sales and mortgage numbers are for all of Oman, not only Muscat. Muscat has no public data on how fast new buildings fill.
Does Muscat need 313,000 new homes?
Some people quote this number. It comes from the Greater Muscat Structure Plan, launched on 19 May 2026 (Ministry of Housing and Urban Planning, Greater Muscat Structure Plan).
Read the wording. The plan allows UP TO 313,000 new homes by 2040, from Muttrah to Barka. They come "through new and regenerated communities" (Broadway Malyan, Muscat Structure Plan launch). So this includes rebuilding old areas.
| If Muscat grows at | Muscat in 2040 | Extra people | New homes needed |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 pace (+1.6% a year) | 1.93 million | +385,000 | about 86,000 |
| 2025 pace (+2.3% a year) | 2.12 million | +571,000 | about 128,000 |
| 2024 pace (+2.9% a year) | 2.31 million | +761,000 | about 171,000 |
| About +4.7% a year | 2.94 million | +1.4 million | about 313,000 |
My calculation. Start: 1,546,325 people in July 2026, 14 years to 2040. About 4.5 people per new household (the 2024 average from the table above).
At recent growth, Muscat needs about 86,000 to 171,000 new homes by 2040. That is a quarter to a half of 313,000. To need all 313,000, Muscat would have to grow almost 5% a year, every year, to 2040.
So 313,000 is the space the plan allows. It is not a measured shortage.
What does this mean for buyers?
The big idea: Muscat is not one market. The question is which unit, not "Muscat yes or no".
Lower risk
- • New buildings in good locations, from a developer that finished projects on time before.
- • Areas where land is running out. Building permits in Muttrah fell 57% from 2016 to 2022 (284 to 121; my count from Muscat Municipality open data (construction permits)).
- • Land and villas, for Omani family demand.
Higher risk
- • Old flats, or ordinary flats with nothing special, that compete with empty units.
- • Small units bought only for the payment plan or a residency hope.
- • Projects with no developer yet, or a delivery date that keeps moving.
To compare projects, see the projects foreigners can buy, with prices, the off-plan price tracker and the Sultan Haitham City guide.
Is residency part of your plan? Check your route first with the residency route finder.
What could change this?
- The new Real Estate Registry Law (Royal Decree 56/2026) may let foreigners own outside the tourism complexes. The Ministry says not in all areas, and the rules to apply it are not issued yet (Trowers & Hamlins, Real Estate Registry Law (Jul 2026); IMI Daily, Oman opens its market to foreigners (24 Jun 2026); Gulf News, ownership stays in designated areas (28 Jun 2026)).
- Golden Residency had about 56,000 applications by June 2026. No approvals were published then (IMI Daily, Golden Residency applications (16 Jun 2026)).
What I could not find: Muscat has no public data on how fast new buildings fill, or on rents in new buildings. That data would settle this question.
If you live in Muscat: is your building full, or half empty?
Looking at a unit in Muscat?
Send me the project and the unit on WhatsApp. I will tell you what I know about the building and the developer.
Send on WhatsAppSources
- NCSI Statistical Year Book 2025
- NCSI Monthly Statistical Bulletin, August 2026
- Oman Observer, sales contracts Jan–Aug 2026
- Oman Observer, Cavendish Maxwell interview (24 Jun 2025)
- Ministry of Housing and Urban Planning, Greater Muscat Structure Plan
- Broadway Malyan, Muscat Structure Plan launch
- Muscat Daily, Sultan Haitham City 1,700 units sold (13 Apr 2026)
- Oman Observer, Sultan Haitham City plan (20 Jun 2023)
- Oman Observer, Housing Minister on Sultan Haitham City (24 Feb 2026)
- Ministry of Housing and Urban Planning, Jood
- Talaat Moustafa Group, investor presentation (Sep 2026)
- Osoul Misr, Wadi Zaha (12 Mar 2026, Arabic)
- Times of Oman, A'Thuraya City (27 Sep 2025)
- Oman Observer, Al Khuwair Downtown (26 Sep 2026)
- Zawya, Madinat Al Irfan first phase (13 Oct 2026)
- Zawya, Al Mouj last two phases (16 Feb 2026)
- Oman Observer, Sorouh Al Ahd (7 May 2025)
- Muscat Daily, Ministry projects incl. Amerat (10 May 2026)
- Cushman & Wakefield, Dubai Q4 2025
- Cushman & Wakefield, Dubai Q2 2026
- Gulf News, Dubai population (29 Sep 2026)
- Khaleej Times, Abu Dhabi supply (Cavendish Maxwell, 26 Aug 2026)
- Cushman & Wakefield, Abu Dhabi H1 2026
- CBRE, Bahrain H1 2026
- Trowers & Hamlins, Real Estate Registry Law (Jul 2026)
- IMI Daily, Oman opens its market to foreigners (24 Jun 2026)
- Gulf News, ownership stays in designated areas (28 Jun 2026)
- IMI Daily, Golden Residency applications (16 Jun 2026)
- NCSI, Population, Housing and Household Statistics 2023 (archived copy, Arabic)
- Muscat Municipality open data (construction permits)
Last checked: October 2026. Personal view. Not investment advice. If you see a number here that is wrong or old, tell me on WhatsApp and I will check it.
Waleed Al Abri
Real Estate Advisor
Waleed Property - Founder & Principal Advisor
Focus areas:
Waleed works with foreign and GCC buyers in Oman's property market. Most of the work is the part non-Omani buyers get stuck on: which areas allow foreign ownership, the difference between ITC freehold and usufruct, whether a property gets you residency, and how off-plan payments are protected.
Covers: Al Mouj Muscat, Sultan Haitham City, designated foreign-ownership areas, and residency through property.